Who Will Lagosians Vote For?

 The contest is mainly between All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Akinwumi Ambode and Olujimi Agbaje of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Asked to predict the outcome of the contest, Lagos prince and one-time legislator and Commissioner for Commerce and Industry Tajudeen Olusi said: “Lagos belongs to progressives.” But, PDP chieftain and former Works Minister Prince Adeseye Ogunlewe disagreed. He said: “Agbaje will beat Ambode.”
In almost 16 years, Lagosians have sealed a pact with the progressive bloc. Will there be a clean break from the past as people prepare for the governorship election? Will the people sustain the tradition? Group Politcal Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU highlights factors that will shape the poll.
 Since 1999, only progressive parties-the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the Action Congress (AC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and APC-have ruled Lagos. Efforts by the PDP to win governorship elections have been futile. Olusi attributed the failure to the gap between the people’s expectation and PDP’s vision. He said the PDP-Federal Government has neglected Lagos in the last 16 years.
The progressive beat, which started in the Second Republic, goes on. In 1979, a progressive, Alhaji Lateef Jakande of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), defeated Ladega Adeniji-Adele of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). In 1983, Jakande was re-elected, defeating Hakeem Habeeb of the NPN. In the Third Republic, the proscribed Social Democratic Party (SDP) was more popular than the National Republican Convention (NRC). But, owing to the split in the dominant party, a section tilted support towards the late Chief Michael Otedola of the NRC, who defeated the SDP candidate, Chief Yomi Edu.
In 1999 and 2003, Senator Bola Tinubu of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) defeated PDP’s Chief Dapo Sarunmi and Mr. Funso Williams. In 2007, Babatunde Fashola (SAN) of the Action Congress (AC) and later, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), defeated Senator Musiliu Obanikoro of the PDP and Agbaje of the Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA). In 2011, the PDP candidate, Dr. Ade Dosunmu, also lost his deposit. He was defeated by Fashola.
At the flag off of the APC governorship campaign in Ikeja, the state capital, Olusi said Lagosians are not assailed by collective amnesia. “They will vote for the right party and the party is the APC,” he added.  The elder statesman said President Goodluck Jonathan’s poor performance will be the PDP’s albatross in next month’s election. He explained that Lagosians who are affected by the grave economic situation will vent their anger on poll day, adding that many who are angry at the erratic power supply and collapsed infrastructure will reject the PDP. “Corruption is a big issue. As Obasanjo has said, it has ruined the country. This is another factor,” he stressed.
At the PDP presidential campaign in Lagos, Ondo State Governor Segun Mimiko drew the attention of party supporters to the on-going Lagos/Ibadan Expressway project being undertaken by the Federal Government. But, the APC National Publicity Secretary Alhaji Lai Mohammed described the move as hypocrisy. “The latter-day construction of the Lagos/Ibadan Expressway is a vote-winning gimmick that has backfired as the project has only progressed at a snail-speed apparently due to lack of funds, ” he added.
Other Lagosians who share the view that Lagos State has been neglected by the Federal Government are bitter at the PDP. Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola (SAN) complained that people are weary of the President’s insensitivity to the plight of the state. He cited the traffic gridlock at Apapa, the sea port, and the agony unleashed by fuel lifting by thousands of trailers on daily basis. He said the socio-economic life of residents is dislocated, adding that hotels and recreational centres are worse hit.
Besides, Fashola gave other reasons. He said Lagosians will not vote for Agbaje because his party opposed the creation of additional councils in Lagos. At Ikorodu, he told the huge crowd at the campaign held at Ogolonto that PDP will scrap the additional 37 councils, if it wins the poll. “You had one local government before in Ikorodu Division. Now, you have six. Do you want PDP to scrap the councils?” he asked. The crowd chorused: No.
Prospective voters have also been beaming a searchlight on the two candidates, based on their pedigree and previous experience. Agbaje is a successful pharmacist. Ambode is a former Auditor-General for Local Government. He has worked in over 12 councils before he moved to the civil service, where he retired as the Accountant-General and Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance.  Fashola paid tribute to the APC flag bearer for rendering effective service to the state. The governor recalled that, when the Federal Government withheld allocations to the state, he invented the financial strategy that made the local governments to survive. “He has worked with my predecessor. He has worked with me for six years as an accountant-general. Let me remind you. Which party and government frustrated the creation of new local governments in Lagos? It is the PDP. At the time their party and their government seized our money, this is the young man who was managing the finances and made those local governments to survive.
“I was the Chief of Staff then. I was the one fighting the legal battle with Yemi Osinbajo. So, are you not seeing the team? Ambode in Lagos and Osinbajo in Abuja. Your local government will be safe, if Buhari is elected. Your local government will be protected, if Ambode is elected. Those who wanted to spoil it yesterday cannot come and ask for your votes. Go and tell those who are not here that the election is about another fight for freedom. It is about the survival of the local government, state and the country.”
In Fashola’s view, it is dangerous to elect an inexperienced successor, warning that progress may be at a standstill. He said: “This state is too strategic and too critical to the development of Nigeria, to the prosperity of the West Africa sub-region, to the prosperity and stability of the African continent to be entrusted to a beginner or an experimental. We are voting continuity because we want to consolidate in what we have achieved.”
At the Ikeja rally, former Governor Bola Tinubu also spoke on why Ambode is better than Agbaje. He said previous opportunities given to the pharmacist to learn the ropes were rejected by him in the past. He said when the party and the government offered him opportunities to serve as a commissioner, senator and deputy governor, he refused to take up the jobs. Tinubu, who predicted that PDP will lose the poll, said the challenge of post-Fashola period will require sound financial management. He said while Agbaje lacks experience in this regard, Ambode has been tested and he can now be trusted.  “Agbaje wanted to be governor in 2007. He contested in the AC. He failed. He went to DPA. He failed. He has gone to the PDP. He will fail again,” Tinubu added. Addressing supporters in Apapa, Ambode described the PDP flag bearer as a trial and error politician. He said: “We don’t need trial and error politician. We need experienced people to continue the progress we have made in Lagos,” he said.
In terms of structure, APC also appears to have an edge over the PDP. The ruling party will lean on the incumbency power and a resilient public, which the federal might may not be able to confront. Today, APC has 40 members of the House of Assembly, 20 members of the House of Representatives, three senators, and 40 members of the State Executive Council. Until recently, the Chairmen of 57 local governments, their vice chairmen, secretaries, councillors and supervisory councillors belong to the ruling party. Their successors are pro-APC executive secretaries.
The ruling party is also ahead of the PDP on the mobilisation field. A week after the flag off of the APC campaigns, PDP is holding town hall meetings in some local governments. The preparation by the opposition party may have been slowed down by the post-primary crisis that rocked the fold, following its rancorous shadow poll at Oregun. There was reconciliation, but the perception of Agbaje as an outsider who came to reap where he did not sow has not disappeared. Few weeks ago, his rival at the primaries, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, former Minister of State for Defence, maintained that the primaries that threw up the former Afenifere treasurer as the PDP candidate was flawed. “That was why I protested. That was why I wanted to go to court. I protested so that this will not repeat itself in the Lagos PDP,” the former minister said.
Ahead of the poll, many big wigs have also defected from the PDP to the APC. When they defected, Dr. Abayomi Finnih, Chief Rafiu Jafojo, Chief Tunde Daramola and Dr. Aganga-Williams shed light on why the PDP cannot win Lagos. Jafojo said: ‘PDP is out of tune with reality. When I got to the PDP, I met a party in crisis. I left them in crisis. They do not have that intention of winning. They are using the chapter to bargain for appointments for few chieftains in the camp of their leader. APC is an organised party with clear vision and goal. It is like a movement. It is masses oriented. That is why Ambode will win.”
A chieftain of the APC in Agbowa-Ikosi, Alhaji Isiaka Adekunle Ibrahim said the APC will profit from the sentiment that Nigerians are fed up with President Jonathan. “What is the logic, if you vote out Jonathan and you ask  Lagosians to vote for Agbaje, a PDP man? Many see Agbaje as a good man. But, his party is not good. The feeling is that the good man has joined a bad company,” he added.
Adekunle-Ibrahim, an economist and banker, said it is unthinkable that the PDP is asking for an endorsement by the Southwest, of which Lagos is an important part. He said stakeholders are irked by the marginalisation of the region, despite the support given to the President in 2011. “The Southwest is bitter against the Federal Government. Our leaders were called rascals the other time at Ibadan. key positions have eluded us. What is the gain of the Southwest under the Jonathan Administration. How can Lagosians vote for the continuity of the government that has denied Lagos a special status?” he queried.
Also, the APC chieftain said that many things have happened between 2011 and now that will make other non-Yoruba ethnic groups, particularly Northerners, to turn their backs against the PDP. “Go to Agege, Apapa, Idi-Araba, Obalende. They are for Buhari. If they are for Buhari, then, they are for APC. In Lagos therefore, they are for Ambode,” Adekunle-Ibrahim added.
Ambode has even warmed himself to the non-indigenes when he promised to run an all-inclusive administration that will carry all the ethnic groups along. He told the crowd at Ikeja that he will not run a discriminatory government, but an administration that will cater for the welfare of all Lagosians, irrespective of religion and tribe. “APC has accommodated all the tribes. In Lagos, we have people from the six Southwest states as commissioners and special advisers. We have an Igbo as commissioner. We have northerners at the board and parastatals. We have them as council functionaries. We have them in the civil and teaching service. Ambode has given commitment that nothing will tamper with their interest. They will not vote the PDP because they trust that the APC will continue to cater for them.”